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Airavat · AI · Trading Systems · Crypto · Prediction Markets · Macro
An examination of prediction markets through the lens of market structure. This piece explores why prediction markets are interesting, the types of inefficiencies that exist today, and why many of those edges are likely to compress as markets mature.
Bitcoin is usually discussed through price and narratives. This piece steps back to first principles, frames Bitcoin as a monetary ledger and explores a few mental models that inform asset allocation—why Bitcoin, and why zero is likely the wrong allocation.